EPEC NEWS

VA Early Voting Trends to Note

Oct. 11, 2024

Heading into the halfway mark of Virginia’s 45-day early voting phase, election-stats analysts are buzzing about better-than-usual turnout in some categories, amid lower turnout overall compared to 2020.

—According to the Dept. of Elections, 614,264 ballots were in “countable” state as of Oct. 10, out of about 5.8 million active registrations in Virginia, or about 10%.

—We are heading for the million mark on number of ballots issued with over 300,000 still out in the mail.

—Early voting ends on Saturday, Nov. 2nd, giving election officials a slight breather before “Game Day” voting on Tuesday, Nov. 5th.

As of Oct 10, the Tally:

Countable: 614,294 (2020: 857,00)

Breakdown:

—In Person: 431,939

—Mail in: 182,284

—Total: 614,294

—Issued: 332,799 (out in the mail)

In Congressional District races, CD 1 has the most ballots in countable state as of Oct 10, at just under 80,000. The district with the least ballots in so far is CD 3 with 36,874 tallied. The open seat for CD 7 between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman is being watched as a competitive race in a toss-up seat.

Analysts are noting that Republican-leaning voters are now about 40% of the countable ballots and Democrat-leaning voters are just under 60% in some districts. Typically, Republican voters tend to represent about 30%-35% of early voting absentee tallies in Virginia. Low propensity voters are also showing up in increasing numbers, as the chart below shows.

Oct. 10, 2024

* Countable ballots = 614,294

Breakout by voting propensity:

–High = 456,946  –Medium = 126,159  –Low = 31,639

* Issued ballots = 332,799 (mailed out)