Via EPEC Team Newsletter:
By EPEC Voter News Staff
Nov. 12, 2023 — Electoral Process Education Corporation (EPEC) is again raising questions about why a higher percentage of Military and Overseas ballots are failing to be counted compared to the general population in the Commonwealth of Virginia’s 2023 General Election.
According to the Dept. of Elections data in the Daily Absentee Report (DAL), early voting tallies show that 13,865 voters requested what is known as UOCAVA absentee ballots (Uniformed Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act for federal and state elections), which covers ballots for military, overseas and temporary overseas federal workers who are not able to vote in person.
As of Friday, Nov. 10th, the DAL record shows 7237 absentee ballots had been tabulated, with 243 listed as “provisional” and “unmarked,” and 6230 showing as issued but not returned. The deadline to receive them is three days after a general election (Nov. 7th this year). But due to the Veterans Day observance Friday, the ballots are due the following business day, Monday, Nov. 13, by noon.
If the numbers of ballots not returned holds, that would work out to a failure rate of between 46.1% and 48% (depending on how some of the ballot statuses are counted).
As it found in 2022, and as initially reported in the EPEC Team newsletter, 48% of military ballots were issued but not returned or tabulated, close to twice the failure rate of the general populations’ average of about 25%.
According to EPEC’s Senior Analyst and member of EPEC’s board of directors Rick Naigle, the DAL record shows that 46.1% of all UOCAVA voters’ ballots were not tabulated, but 67.8% of UOCAVA By Mail, voters who have no other option to vote than mail mail, were not tabulated.
By contrast, in 2022, the “By Mail” absentee voting tabulation rate for the general population was 75%. On average, three out of four by-mail were tabulated and tallied; the other 25% were in one of the various “uncounted” statuses in the DAL (Deleted, Unmarked, Issued, Provisional).
Factors likely contributing to lower success rates for Military and Overseas voters might include the following:
- Invalid mailing addresses
- Ineligibility to Vote
- Insufficient lead time (between mailing out and receiving back)
- Difficulty achieving ballot cure due to inability to contact voters in a remote overseas deployment
- Lack of interest or awareness by the citizen voter
On this weekend’s federal observance of Veterans Day and the official Veterans Day holiday Saturday, Nov. 11, EPEC Team is asking other officials why the tabulation rate of military voters is consistently lower than the general population.
Comments(3)-
-
-
Do a Deep Dive at DPW
A major project of EPEC is the Digital PollWatchers, where EPEC’s volunteers document even deeper analysis and graphics about voter participation, voter registration lists, and pollwatcher reporting. To find out more, check out DPW and be a part of your elections!
Become an EPEC Sponsor
Electoral Process Education Corp (EPEC) has been making a positive impact on elections by promoting widely held best practices in database management. We have been successful in this effort to promote improved processes. The more American citizens understand the processes of elections management, the more transparency we build into the system, the more we can promote voter participation in a system Americans can trust. To find out more, check out BE an EPEC Sponsor to consider a tech-focused sponsorships to help us grow our mission.
Learn More in our Resources Page
EPEC is building a Document & Knowledge library where you can learn more about how election technology works and perhaps join us as a data analyst Videos, Data Vizualization, Dashboards, Presentations, and FAQs.
- Document Library
- Impact Reports
- Contact Us
Rick Naigle says
November 17, 2023 at 10:51 amWatch for an update on this topic in the near future.
Analysis of the Virginia Early Voting process using data from the 15 November 2023 Daily Absentee List – 962786 applications were submitted, 957077 were approved (99.4% approval rate). The number of approved applications exceeded the number of voters – 939189 – due to application errors by voters and multiple approval errors by election officials. All 939189 voters had at least ONE application approved – 100% success rate.
Eighty-eight percent of the applicants (826941 voters, 88.0% of the total applicants) successfully cast 826941 ballots – 551347 in person, 275594 by mail.
Slightly more than one percent of the voters – 12897 voters (1.3%) cast ballots which had not yet been adjudicate. Of these, 9712 were by mail ballots requiring cure or which were uncountable for other reasons, and 3185 provisional ballots.
More than ten percent of the applicants (99351, or 10.6% of the voters) had uncountable ballots. There were 122948 uncountable ballots for a variety of reasons. 91664 ballots were issued but not returned. 30561 were deleted – typically due to voter or election staff errors resulting in issuance of a replacement ballot. 602 were received Late (of these, 2 were received on 26 October so they should not have been considered Late). 115 ballots were approved but not issued. 6 ballots were in a cancelled status.
Looking only at By Mail early voting, there were an estimated 387842 approved voters. 275594 voters successfully cast ballots (71.1%). 12897 had ballots requiring adjudication (3.3%), and 99351 voters (25.6%) failed to get their ballots tabulated (91664 failed to return their ballots).
The overall By Mail voter “failure rate” will be somewhere between 25.6% and 29.9% – probably close to 27% of the approved By Mail voters failed.
We looked at Military, Overseas, and Temporary – Federal Only voters (UOCAVA) vs all others (NON-UOCAVA).
There are a relatively small number of UOCAVA voters – 14255 voters. Of these, 7784 are Military, 6433 are Overseas, and 38 are Temporary – Federal Only. Of these, about 4443 voted In Person.
About 10190 had to rely on the absentee By Mail process. The overall failure rate for UOCAVA voters was almost 70% – 3 in 10 succeeded in getting their ballot tabulated.
Temporary – Federal Only BY MAIL voters fared the worst within this group. Their failure rate was 96% (1 out of 24 absentee By Mail voters had ballots counted).
Overseas voters also had bad results. About 6063 Overseas applicants had no ballot counted (73% of the Overseas applicants). Another 40 (roughly 1%) of the Overseas voters had ballots remaining to be adjudicated.
Military voted did better, but the results were still abysmal. There were roughly 4104 Military absentee BY MAIL voters. 2583 failed (63%) – mostly because they failed to return ballots. Another 204 Military voters (5%) have ballots being adjudicated. 32% (1314) successfully cast ballots.
We think there is a hand-off issue between the US Postal Service and Military postal units. We also think there may be absentee ballot mailing address errors which are causing delivery errors or mailing delays. A root cause analysis needs to be performed. A 25% success rate for UOCAVA voters is unacceptable.
Rick Naigle says
November 18, 2023 at 2:58 pmMilitary Voters overall failed to have their by-mail ballots tabulated 80% of the time (1 in 5 voted successfully).
The high absentee By Mail failure rate for Military voters is most likely attributable military postal unit failures, or there is an issue with transferring mail between US Postal Service and Department of Defense postal units.
The main Services Academies, Army, Navy, and Air Force, are serviced by DOD postal units.
Faculty and Cadets at West Point (US Military Academy) failed 70% of the time (3 in 10 voted successfully).
Faculty and Midshipmen at the US Naval Academy failed 61% of the time (2 in 5 voted successfully).
Faculty and Cadets at the US Air Force Academy failed 79% of the time (1 in 5 voted successfully).
Having been stations at several Army installations within the Continental United States (CONUS), I thought I would compare the success rates for On Post / On Base with Local Area Military. I was stationed at several Army bases – Fort Benning (renamed Fort Moore) GA, Fort Bragg (renamed Fort Liberty) NC, and Fort Lewis (renamed Joint Base Lewis-McChord) WA, so I am familiar with the local areas near the military installations.
Looking at Fort Bragg / Fort Liberty By Mail success versus the surrounding Fayetteville area, 50% of the on post voters failed (1 in 2 voted successfully). Military living off post had a 35% failure rate (13 in 20 voted successfully).
Fort Benning / Fort Moore had a 83% failure rate on post (1 in 5 voted successfully). Military voters living off post had a 60% failure rate (2 in 5 voted successfully).
Fort Lewis / Joint Base Lewis McChord had a 100% failure rate on post. Military voters living off post had a 33% failure rate (2 in 3 voted successfully).
I am starting to look at failure rate by Absentee Ballot Zip Code. More to follow.
Mike Sheliga says
November 29, 2023 at 8:45 pm(1) I do a lot with early-voting-sites (EVSs), which I define as voting in a location where I am handed a ballot, fill it out, and return it all at one site. In Goochland County we had one EVS near our courthouse. This is very common in rural counties, while Fairfax County and enclosed cities had about 22.
(1B) I normally early vote the first day of early voting.
(2) I define “AP” or “at-poll” voting as voting in your local precinct on election day.
(3) I define “MIB” (mail-in-ballot) voting as voting in which the ballot is mailed *at least one way*.
(4) This means there are (to my knowledge) exactly 3 ways to vote in Virginia, EVS, AP or MIB.
—————————————————————————————
(1) The comments state: “Analysis of the Virginia Early Voting process using data from the 15 November 2023 Daily Absentee List – 962786 applications were submitted, 957077 were approved (99.4% approval rate).”
(1b) Looking at the other statements, these “962786 applications” for “Early Voting” includes folks like me who voted at an EVS. In other words, you are counting folks who early voted at/near their courthouse 45-5 days before election day as having an “application” *even though there was no physical application* at an EVS site. Is this correct?
=======================================================
(2) The comments state:
More than ten percent of the applicants (99351, or 10.6% of the voters) had uncountable ballots. There were 122948 uncountable ballots for a variety of reasons.
Can you explain why 99351 voters had 122948 uncountable ballots. I’m guessing the difference were “deleted” ballots, which were (almost) always re-issued. Maybe a few were “deleted” but not re-issued, such as for deceased people.
=======================================
(3) Of course folks living in Virginia getting MIBs always have both EVS and AP (traditional “at poll” voting on election day) options.
If a MIB voter brings there MIB ballot to an EVS/AP site, how is it counted? Presuming it is not crumpled or forgotten, can it be filled out and tabulated. If so, is it still classified as a “completed” MIB ballot?
If a MIB voter shows up at an EVS/AP site, but has forgotten their MIB, how is this handled? Is there MIB ballot cancelled, and then they are allowed to vote? Provisionally or not? Is the new ballot counted as a “MIB” or an “AP” ballot?
====================================================
(4) How many UACOVA voters have an EVS site within, say 40 miles? (0 I believe?). How many have a local AP polling place? (Once again I’m guessing 0). It seems that quite a few (“4443 voted” In Person) UACOVA voters vote in person. This suggests that there are either out of state voting sites (which I don’t think exist) or quite a few (about 33%) are in Virginia at some point during EVS and/or AP voting.
===============================
(5) I would expect quite a few “MIB” (mail-in-ballot) folks living in Virginia actually vote at an EVS or AP site.
Once you exclude these from the analysis, how many of the folks who received MIBs voted by mail. I would think this would be the most apt comparison. On the other hand since a large number of UACOVA voters cant vote EVS or AP, I would expect there return percentage to be larger.
—————————————
Finally, I would always recommend explaining in more detail what the categories are.
Thank you for all the hard work you do.
Learn More About EPEC
Resources is here