Virginia 2026 Special Election Early Voting Turnout Stats

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    • EPEC Analysis by Rick Naigle summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Special Election regarding redistricting, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters.
    • Title page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Special Election regarding redistricting, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters. The volume gap between high-volume and low-volume processing is a 15.9 rejection delta. This is also a systemic pattern in statewide data.
    • Page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Propensity disparities exceed 11 points in local processing in Virginia special election ballot processing between presumed R and presumed D voters.
    • Data Sources and Methodology for Page ecent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Redistricting Special Election, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters.
    • Page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Special Election regarding redistricting, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters. This slide examines the volume effect that shows more rejections when fewer mail-in ballots are processed and fewer when the volume of mail ballots is higher.
    • Page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 This slide about the disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters shows that a 4.01% rejection rate of mail-in ballots is highest on Wednesdays. Rejection rates are highest mid-week and lowest on Friday.
    • The volume paradox shows higher rejection rates on slower days, by 15.82 percentage points and a z-score of 15.35.
    • Slide offers diagnostic matrix to isolate potential root causes for clear disparities among processing rates across Virginia during the redistricting special election in 2026.
    • Page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Special Election regarding redistricting, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters and how the volume paradox may be impacted by different factors in ballot delivery process.
    • While the trend of ballot-processing disparities between R-leaning and D-leaning ballots is replicated statewide, the magnitude of the propensity discrepancy in Portsmouth is uniquely severe.
    • Page summarizes recent analysis of Virginia's 2026 Special Election regarding redistricting, which shows a disparity between how ballots are processed between presumed R and presumed D voters.
    • Slide offers four steps to address how to address processing disparities between R-leaning and D-leaning ballots, including mulitvariable regressional analysis.

    Higher Rejection Rates for R-Leaning Ballots Found in Special Election

  • VA Special Election on Redistricting Data Visualizations

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